(7-minute read - feels shorter)
It's February 2020, and I couldn't be more excited for No Time to Die, the fifth and final Daniel Craig as James Bond film that comes out in April (edit: now postponed because of COVID-19). It's crazy though to think he's had so much box office success across a 14-year timespan of playing a badass character.
Anyway, while watching Casino Royale (2006), I thought it would be interesting to analyze Bond's odds in his final hand at the epic high stakes poker game in Montenegro. Throughout the game, no other players mattered except Bond and Le Chiffre, and it was the intense matchup that made this scene one of the most iconic memories of the movie.
Take a look to jog your memory:
It's interesting because in a real game, as soon as the 4 of Spades comes out of the dealer's hand, Bond had the hardest job at the table – to keep his composure.
Le Chiffre is thrown back by this move and can't believe it, uncomfortably chuckling at Bond for having the balls to reraise him by both tripling the raise and reraising to 6 times the original bet. The pot went from $24 million to now $115 million...
Bond smiles at Le Chiffre, who thinks Bond is either insane or extremely lucky. Le Chiffre must have read this and analyzed the situation: There are only two possible hands that Bond could have to beat him: an Ace and an 8 or a Straight Flush with a 5 and 7 of spades.
In Le Chiffre's mind, there are already two aces on the board and he has the third Ace in the deck, which means the chances of Bond holding the final Ace are slim. He's actually right about that because as we know Bond indeed does not have an Ace.
And surely, he thinks, there is no way that Bond could have entered into this $1 million big blind round with a silly 5-7 suited.
Le Chiffre looks at his hand again and calls Bond on his reraise. Some people like me would argue that Le Chiffre should have read this situation closer using pot odds because Bond's insane bet should have given away that he owns one of the two victory hands.
I haven't had enough experience with poker to factor in pot odds in my plays, which might sound surprising if you've read this far! Of course there are so many tells in poker and body language is a huge part of that. The battle between these two characters just shows the kind of drama that would later unfold in the movie.
Hope you enjoyed reading! Comment below on what you think.
Helpful Sources:
https://www.cardplayer.com/
https://www.cardschat.com/poker-hands/
Anyway, while watching Casino Royale (2006), I thought it would be interesting to analyze Bond's odds in his final hand at the epic high stakes poker game in Montenegro. Throughout the game, no other players mattered except Bond and Le Chiffre, and it was the intense matchup that made this scene one of the most iconic memories of the movie.
Take a look to jog your memory:
Now let's do a post-mortem analysis, but as if we were reliving the scene.
The Pre-Flop: What is Bond doing?
As poker games go, we need to start with the pre-flop, the stage before any cards are shown on the table. For those who play or watch poker, pre-flop betting is a huge part of the game because you can bully people to fold thus eliminating them from the round. However, the film strategically cuts out this part because it's the least dramatic part of poker and might not make sense for most audiences.
Now let's look at the graphic below with the cards dealt to all four players. Right away you'll see that Bond actually has the worst hand a.k.a the LOWEST odds of winning this round at 12.52%.
If you've played poker before, you would almost always play the hands of Fukuta (King Queen Suited) and Infante (Pocket 8's), which have a much better chance of successfully winning the round than the hands of Le Chiffre and Bond. Fukuta and Infante together command 61% in all chances of winning this round before the flop.
Back to our hero, you are less likely to play a hand like Bond's, a 5-7 suited hand, which are not only low-value cards but also heavily reliant on hitting a straight or flush to gain reasonable leverage in betting at a high stakes poker table.
Le Chiffre is playing very bold here as well since there are four players and he has an Ace-6 off-suit, so his only advantage is an Ace high card (the highest value card in the game). We know Le Chiffre likes to bluff and play mind games, so probably not a surprise to see the arch-villain play his hand here.
Overall very interesting pre-flop with Fukuta and Infante on the left having much better hands than Le Chiffre and Bond on the right.
The Flop: This is getting good
Here comes the flop. Ace-8-6.
This is the reveal in poker where three cards are immediately shown on the table. Our hero and man- who-does-not-age-after-14 years, Daniel Craig, suddenly over doubles his odds of winning from 12.5% to 28.3%. He just needs a 4 to complete his straight or a club (clover suit) to complete his flush.
Bond is now in a much stronger position than he was prior and must be feeling a rush of adrenaline – ironic because he just survived cardiac arrest. James Bond should continue to play the board in hopes of hitting either a straight or a flush.
Bond is now in a much stronger position than he was prior and must be feeling a rush of adrenaline – ironic because he just survived cardiac arrest. James Bond should continue to play the board in hopes of hitting either a straight or a flush.
Meanwhile, Le Chiffre immediately hits a two pair (Aces and sixes) on the flop and despite his odds being cut in half from 21% to 9%, he should probably continue with this hand because hitting two pair on the flop is rare. He also still has the Ace high card and can score a full house. For those reasons, he continues...
Fukuta must feel a bit disappointed as he quickly went from the pre-flop card leader to the 3rd worst hand as it is now much harder for him to hit a straight, and he failed to catch a face card to pair with his King or Queen. However, he did hit four spades on the flop like Bond and has a better hand than Le Chiffre right now because of his chances for a flush: 15% overall chance at winning. While he doesn't know anyone else's hand, he can still hit a pair of Kings or Queens along with a tiny chance of hitting a straight. There are reasonable enough signs to continue and so he will...
Finally, Infante is smiling as it might be his lucky round with his pocket 8's hitting a three of a kind on the flop. He now commands the board with a 47.7% chance of winning the round, and he just needs to sit back and hope no other spades show up.
The Turn: Bond's 1 in 72,193 chance
Interestingly, this is the last sequence we need to know even though there's still one more card to go to complete The River.
Bond hit the lottery with this card, completing a straight AND a flush, creatively known as a straight flush: 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 suited. According to https://www.cardschat.com/poker-hands/, a straight flush has a 1 in 72,193 chance of appearing, and Bond knows that no matter what happens now he has won the round. The only other possible hands that can beat his are a Royal Flush or a higher Straight Flush, which are impossible to hit now knowing everyone's hands.
It's interesting because in a real game, as soon as the 4 of Spades comes out of the dealer's hand, Bond had the hardest job at the table – to keep his composure.
Since he was under the gun (the position where you bet first), you'll notice in the video that Bond wisely checks the board, abstaining from betting any money. If he had bet a large sum of chips here, he would have given away that he hit a straight or flush. Every other player on the table would have picked up on that and gotten closer to guessing his hand correctly, allowing Bond to earn not nearly as much as he could.
Fukuta checks because he hit his flush (5 spades), and it seems he's trying to bait people into the next round, so he can try to make more money.
Infante checks because that four of clubs does absolutely nothing to help him. Le Chiffre likely checks for the same reason.
Fukuta checks because he hit his flush (5 spades), and it seems he's trying to bait people into the next round, so he can try to make more money.
Infante checks because that four of clubs does absolutely nothing to help him. Le Chiffre likely checks for the same reason.
The River: A False Hope
So after all players check their hands during The Turn, everyone except Bond is eagerly awaiting the last card.
Boom, Ace of Clubs. There are now two aces on the table.
Bond checks as he should because if the entire table made it this far, it's highly likely that at least one person is going to put in a sizable bet.
Fukuta already has a Flush draw (5 spades), and he knew before that card even showed up, it was not going to improve his hand. He goes all-in at $6 million to hopefully get everyone around the table to fold. Very aggressive.
Infante scores a Full House with the help of the table, two Aces to help his three 8s, so he's confident that he can challenge Fukuda. Fun fact, he had the smallest chance in the world to hit four of a kind, and even if he did get an 8 on the River, he still would've had a worse hand than Bond's monster straight flush.
Le Chiffre thinks he just won. There was a small chance that he was going to hit an Ace on the River, and he now has a very strong Full House draw with 3 Aces to go along with his two 6s. He feels much more confident and RAISES Fukuta's $6 million bet to $12 million.
Bond mentally sips his martini until Le Chiffre raises, causing Bond to think for a second, "Am I missing something? No wait, I'm not." He gives Le Chiffre a prolonged, curious stare as if to say "Are you serious?", looks at his chips, then says "40 million 500 thousand, All In" and throws all his chips into the pot. Ha!
Boom, Ace of Clubs. There are now two aces on the table.
Bond checks as he should because if the entire table made it this far, it's highly likely that at least one person is going to put in a sizable bet.
Fukuta already has a Flush draw (5 spades), and he knew before that card even showed up, it was not going to improve his hand. He goes all-in at $6 million to hopefully get everyone around the table to fold. Very aggressive.
Infante scores a Full House with the help of the table, two Aces to help his three 8s, so he's confident that he can challenge Fukuda. Fun fact, he had the smallest chance in the world to hit four of a kind, and even if he did get an 8 on the River, he still would've had a worse hand than Bond's monster straight flush.
Le Chiffre thinks he just won. There was a small chance that he was going to hit an Ace on the River, and he now has a very strong Full House draw with 3 Aces to go along with his two 6s. He feels much more confident and RAISES Fukuta's $6 million bet to $12 million.
Bond mentally sips his martini until Le Chiffre raises, causing Bond to think for a second, "Am I missing something? No wait, I'm not." He gives Le Chiffre a prolonged, curious stare as if to say "Are you serious?", looks at his chips, then says "40 million 500 thousand, All In" and throws all his chips into the pot. Ha!
Bond smiles at Le Chiffre, who thinks Bond is either insane or extremely lucky. Le Chiffre must have read this and analyzed the situation: There are only two possible hands that Bond could have to beat him: an Ace and an 8 or a Straight Flush with a 5 and 7 of spades.
In Le Chiffre's mind, there are already two aces on the board and he has the third Ace in the deck, which means the chances of Bond holding the final Ace are slim. He's actually right about that because as we know Bond indeed does not have an Ace.
And surely, he thinks, there is no way that Bond could have entered into this $1 million big blind round with a silly 5-7 suited.
Le Chiffre looks at his hand again and calls Bond on his reraise. Some people like me would argue that Le Chiffre should have read this situation closer using pot odds because Bond's insane bet should have given away that he owns one of the two victory hands.
I haven't had enough experience with poker to factor in pot odds in my plays, which might sound surprising if you've read this far! Of course there are so many tells in poker and body language is a huge part of that. The battle between these two characters just shows the kind of drama that would later unfold in the movie.
Hope you enjoyed reading! Comment below on what you think.
Helpful Sources:
https://www.cardplayer.com/
https://www.cardschat.com/poker-hands/